On a cliff edge

In less than 24 hours’ time the 2025 EU Council of Ministers will begin its annual ‘horse trading’ of quotas which will determine the TACs (Total Allowable Catches) of various species across the EU Member States for the coming year.

Notoriously, Ireland has never fared well in the outcome of these negotiations in the past, partly due to infamously weak Irish DAFM negotiators but also due to slick operators in other more powerful fishing EU Member States … and Irish fishermen are fed up with Minister after Minister returning home from Brussels every December with the same script as the previous year… i.e… “well lads the cut is X percent but it could have been much worse”… and then they expect the Irish fishing industry to be grateful for small mercies.

But this year, in a twin pronged attack, things are much scarier and even involve a sinister political plot to actually push the Irish fishing industry into financial ruin and complete collapse.

Firstly there is the scientific advice (ICES) which the EU Commission always stands by and therefore by which each Member State has always accepted and abided by…. But this year the ICES’ advice (as far as Ireland is concerned) is for an approximate 30% reduction in the quota of demersal (whitefish) and prawns (nephrops) along with, in the pelagic sector, 21% reduction in boarfish, 40% reduction in blue whiting, and 70% reduction in mackerel…..

These proposed scientifically advised quota reductions will hit Ireland’s fishing and processing sectors, already in crisis and still reeling from the damage suffered as a result of Brexit, with losses of up to €200 million per annum.

Meanwhile the management of the mackerel stock has been a controversial issue as non EU ‘third country’ nations Norway, Faroes, Iceland, U.K. and Russia have been ignoring the scientific quota cuts that the EU nations have been taking in recent years and they (non EU nations) have reportedly been fishing up to twice the level of what is considered a ‘sustainably managed quota’ - - much to the annoyance of the EU states who feel they have been suffering the cuts so that others can blatantly overfish…

But this week now presents a new and complicated scenario where the non EU nations are finally accepting some scientific advice and, the U.K. and Norway in particular, have announced that they will introduce a 48% cut in mackerel of their (already overinflated self awarded) quota… but meanwhile the EU Commission is remaining steadfast in its intention to push through a 70% cut for its members.

However, as a result of Brexit and the Trade & Cooperation Agreement between the EU and the U.K.,  harmonisation rules means, as it currently stands, they cannot proceed with one party refusing to go higher than a 48% cut, and the other side refusing to go any lower than a 70% cut.

Night of the long knives

But worryingly for Ireland, the confusion and fear goes beyond just this mackerel concern and to begin to comprehend this one must first try to understand the ‘Hague Preferences’.

Established in 1976 as a direct deal that in return granted EU vessels access to fish in Irish waters,

the Fisheries Hague Preferences are a special arrangement within the EU's Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) that gives Ireland an increased quota share for certain key fish stocks “when the overall catch limits (TACs) for those stocks fall below a set level”.

In essence, the Hague Preferences were introduced as a crucial tool for Ireland's fishing industry, providing vital quota relief and economic stability by ensuring a fairer share of fish when stock levels are low. 

This deal was to acknowledge Ireland's heavy reliance on fishing and its underdeveloped fleet at the time of EU entry. These preferences, which were integrated into the CFP, were to act as a safety net, providing crucial extra tonnage to protect Irish fishing communities from drastic cuts when stocks decline (as is exactly the case at this minute in time).

Accordingly, the key aspects of the Hague Preferences are: 

• Historical Basis: They stem from an agreement made when Ireland joined the EU, recognizing the underdeveloped state of its fishing fleet and its deep dependence on marine resources;

• Trigger Mechanism: The preferences kick in when Total Allowable Catches (TACs) for specific stocks drop below agreed-upon thresholds;

• Benefit for Ireland: They secure a larger slice of the pie (quota) for Irish fishermen, preventing severe financial hardship from stock collapses, as seen recently with mackerel;

• Designated Stocks: They primarily apply to important species like mackerel, herring, cod, whiting, haddock, sole, and plaice.

And yet, every year without fail as soon as the December Council opens, there are proposals by certain other EU Member States set down to end these Hague Preferences… but noticeably they aren’t asking to end the side of the deal that gives them access to Irish waters but only to end the side of the deal that ensures Ireland gets the agreed payment.

Every year Ireland has successfully defended its Hague Preferences case as this arrangement was strengthened in 1993 when it seemed to be clarified that this deal was indeed part of the CFP but not a part of the EU system of ‘Relative Stability’.

But this time around there is a more serious, albeit unjust, challenge set to emerge… led by the Netherlands — and backed by the nations that the Dutch have fishing financial interests in, Belgium, France and Germany — and the legal challenge they put forward is that The Hague Preference agreement is NOT enshrined as part of the Common Fisheries Policy but that Ireland only retains what is classed as a ‘legitimate expectation’ i.e. that if you have been receiving something every year for so long then you have a right to keep expecting it — this, they claim, is not the same thing as it being enshrined within the pillars of the CFP.

In case anyone was wondering, this is the very reason Minister Timmy Dooley has been so busy recently in traveling to various EU Member States in a bid to get some backing for Ireland in preparation for the expected veto against The Hague Preferences … and it would appear he is having some success as it now looks likely that Spain, Portugal and Poland have some sympathy for Ireland’s situation and will support the continuation of the long standing Hague Preferences.

Naturally the financial losses to Ireland in terms of the ICES quota cuts are vast, but even so, as we cling to the hope of retaining The Hague Preferences it must be recognised that the ceasing of this arrangement would represent a huge loss of €10 million to the Irish whitefish sector… and for the pelagic sector, the damage to the mackerel quota alone represents a loss of €15 million (even before calculating the loss in blue whiting and boarfish).

Calling out the schoolyard bully

As is so often the case, at the centre of every attempt to destroy the Irish fishing industry, there stands someone from the Netherlands…

Not content with its factory ships plundering Irish waters all year around (for the past 40-odd years) with little or no monitoring from Irish or EU inspection authorities, and holding of vast fishing interests under the flags of many other nations… and finally having no fewer than FOUR MEPs sitting on the EU Pech (fisheries) committee (when Ireland has zero seats), it seems that the EU Commission continues to allow itself to be greatly influenced by what is physically one of the smallest Member States but one that has managed to become a ‘super power’ in fishing terms within the EU.

Even as recently as last month, at a meeting between the EU and Norway of POs (producer organisations), an attendee from the Netherlands lodged a complaint that Ireland had ‘too many POs’ that allowed them have five separate representatives at this meeting… without anyone pointing out the irony to the EU Commission that this particular Dutchman, although he may be a member of many POs, he is not in fact a leader or representative of any of them and therefore he had no legal right to even be present at the meeting.

It later transpired that this particular Dutchman, again not an official chief of any PO, other than his own private companies, is allowed attend almost ALL high level EU fisheries meetings… and this is something our Minister, DAFM officials and MEPs will have to raise as a matter of some urgency.

Finally, at the foot of all this debate is the fact that the very constitution of the European Union promises to ‘protect the economic viability of its members’ and yet year after year we see the EU in blatant breach of this contract as it sells out Ireland’s fishing industry to the clear benefit of other nations, both EU and non EU, who are more powerful and more politically influential.

And so, to bring this long and complicated topic to a close, this week, an entire nation (well the fishing sector portion of it at least) will be holding its breath as Thursday and Friday 11th & 12th December 2025, could well define the future, or lack of… for the Irish fishing industry for the next generation.